Article 54. Estimating Workload by Determining Impact Triggers
One of the necessary jobs of a manager or any planner is determining how long it takes to complete a task. If the task takes too long it brings pressure on a tight schedule and if the schedule is too loose there is lost time waiting. I use the following process to analyze the task for what I call impact triggers. Impact triggers are difficult to explain because they only exist in the particular task at hand and must be identified in each task. They are the key parts to the task that cause it to vary in completion time. When estimating how long it takes to do a task look for those processes in the task that are likely to vary significantly. These are the items most likely to prevent you from meeting your schedule. If the number of these items are only a few then these need to be managed (watched) during the progress of doing the task. If these items are numerous (more than ten) then you should count off their completions. This gives you a lead time warning as to whether or not you will meet the schedule and gives you time to take corrective action by shaving time from other processes or by eliminating a process. You will probably recognize that this as exactly the process used to manage a daily speaking event on the campaign trail.
Now let’s examine this process in another example. A planner in a state highway department needs to estimate how long it will take to complete a road construction project. He does this from drawings, cut and fill estimates and feet of asphalt to be laid. The planner should first estimate all the processes in a strait forward manor using past data. Then he should look for triggers those items that bring significant variability to the project. There are two one is the extent and the hardness of rock lying in the cut areas and the other is the weather both can have a major impact on the schedule. If blasting is required to remove rock it can be very costly because all activities are shutdown during the process. The weather can vary significantly too much rain slows progress too little rain means that tank trucks must add moisture. When managing a project like this both the discovery of unforeseen rock and excessive rain are monitored closely in order to lessen schedule impact.
For a similar process see Reader Question 4. “How do you get Efficiency in Decision making?”.
